Warwickshire County Council faces delaying, cutting back on or stopping altogether capital projects amid bleak financial projections. 

The county's cabinet – the panel of Conservative councillors in charge of major service areas – was presented with a report by the council's financial experts that laid out "significant ongoing pressures".

It prepares the council for refreshing its medium-term financial strategy (MTFS), a five-year framework which politicians base annual budget setting around. It is updated each year. 

The latest version for this financial year required the delivery of £64 million worth of savings and the use of £15.7 million from the council's reserves – back-up funds. 

While it is currently anticipated that any variances in the year 2024-25 can be managed, additional reductions to the revenue budget – money spent on delivering services – are "estimated to be at least £10 million by 2029-30″ in the most likely scenario. 

The report read: "Significant risks remain from rising demand increasing the costs of service delivery which may lead to in-year overspends and challenges delivering planned savings."

It says a clearer outlook will come from the first quarter's financial report to cabinet in September but that "it is already clear that we are facing significant, ongoing in-year pressures".

It adds: "Any 2024-25 overspend is likely to increase the level of savings required in 2025-26 and future years, and significantly reduce reserves unless mitigating action is taken." 

Key risks highlighted include demand for special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) provision, home-to-school transport and social care.

It goes on to warn that "already planned council tax increases are likely to be essential" to balance the books with "a very high bar for new permanent allocations" to the revenue budget alongside "a clear expectation that existing planned budget reductions will be delivered".

Capital spending – on items such as buildings, roads and equipment – will also be hit. 

The report adds: "Substantial increases in the cost of existing and new capital projects will mean that we can no longer afford to fund everything currently planned to meet our ambitions. We will be able to afford to do less unless we take out additional borrowing with consequent revenue costs. 

"This means a greater need for prioritisation, and we will inevitably need to pause, stop or rescope certain projects as our capital budgets will buy much less than originally expected."

Cllr Peter Butlin, deputy leader of the county council and portfolio holder for finance and property, noted that "although the core inflation rate is down to two per cent, there are areas within this council where inflation is still quite high".

Leader of the Liberal Democrat group Cllr Jerry Roodhouse called for the council to be "more explicit" on the fact "that we know the demand management is going to be really difficult", and had further concerns over which capital projects may be shelved and how.

"I'd like to see a bit more on how we are going to prioritise those projects, stop particular projects, whether that is done by cabinet or whether that gets shared a little bit more, the process of how that is done is really important," he said.

"Having that on a cross-party basis would be better than amendments in January into February. The earlier we can get some discussion around that, the better."

Cllr Butlin replied: "We are keen to consult extensively on what we are going to kick into the long grass, or not.

"We will look towards maximising the benefits of any capital project we take forward and make that the criteria by which we prioritise to make life better for people in Warwickshire.

"This does not make out that local government finance is all rosy at the moment. It isn't, and I think this paper reflects that.

"This is why we stick to a five-year MTFS that has to be structured around the reality of the situation as it is today, but I am hopeful that hope will become reality and that we will get a better deal for local government from the new (national) government."