Nine Conservative councillors hold the future of Warwickshire County Council in their hands after rival parties declared their positions on the future of leader George Finch.

Reform UK leader Cllr Finch faces a vote of no confidence at Shire Hall on Tuesday, a motion brought by Green Party councillors fed up of "repeated attacks on staff, partner institutions and use of his role for constant, cheap and nasty political point scoring".

Reform UK leads the authority as the biggest party but without an outright majority, meaning they require support from rival parties to win votes at full council. 

There are 57 members of the council, meaning 29 is the magic number to win, although that number could come down if there are absences on the day or if councillors choose not to vote.

The figure seems set to come down by at least one to 28 with the declaration that the two councillors who defected from Reform UK to Restore Britain – Cllr Luke Cooper and Cllr Scott Cameron – plan to abstain.

Reform UK's deputy leader Cllr Stephen Shaw says that Cllr Finch is expected to have the support of all 19 Reform UK members and two Reform-supporting independents, getting him to 21. 

As well as the six Greens, the bid to remove Cllr Finch will be supported by up to 14 Liberal Democrats and three Labour councillors. Independent Cllr Sam Jones, currently suspended from the Green, takes their tally to 24.

Cllr Judy Falp is not aligned to any larger political group but has tended to vote against or abstain from voting with Reform. 

That means the Tories – the only group yet to set out its stance publicly – are kingmakers again, just as they were in the leadership vote that saw Cllr Finch elected to the top job and in the recent budget-setting meeting.

Back or sack?

The trouble for the Conservatives is that they are faced with a potentially less-palatable choice this time.

They sat out the vote that put Cllr Finch in, one that he won on the chair's casting vote after a 23-23 draw with Liberal Democrat leader Cllr Jerry Roodhouse. 

Back then, they were able to wash their hands of the situation and essentially say 'none of the above', but if they do that this time then Cllr Finch will lose the top job and a new leadership contest will have to be decided on the day. 

The question is what deal could be struck – if any – to replace Cllr Finch with a group that has publicly stated its wish to stand by its leader.

If Reform opts against putting someone else forward for leader, the prospect of a left-leaning coalition taking charge – something that some on the Tory benches would see as a worse option – increases.

The waters could be muddied even further if the Conservatives do not all vote together, raising the possibility that one or two votes, or abstentions, could decide it. 

Conservative group leader Cllr Adrian Warwick was unavailable for comment.

The other parties

With the potential for it to get really tight, Restore Britain's stance is key.

While Cllr Cooper declared he did not see Cllr Finch as the best choice for leader when he left Reform UK, he believes the Greens are "grasping at straws" in trying to get rid.

The Restore duo plans to abstain "based on current information", believing it would be "hypocritical" to back Cllr Finch while also objecting to a 'rainbow' coalition taking power.

"I have seen vitriolic statements in the council, there are people who are not open to cross-party working so I don't think it would work," said Cllr Cooper.

"I've said it in the council chamber before, they cannot hear the other side. Even if we try to get across a good point, they don't hear it."

Asked whether Restore would support an alternative Reform UK leader, Cllr Cooper replied: "A change may be better for council cohesion due to perceptions about the actions of the current leader but that may not be possible. 

"Someone with slightly better personal skills would have to stand up. I am not sure if they have them or whether the other side would be open to a Reform leader.

"A lot of this could just be down to it being Reform but, hypothetically, we'd be open minded to hearing any alternative."

'Reform hasn't delivered'

Group leader Cllr Sarah Feeney confirmed Labour would back Cllr Finch's ousting, arguing he had been "embroiled in one issue after another".

Citing how he had "implied he was seeing social services records" and the "frankly embarrassing behaviour of attacking fellow councillors" – the mocking up Conservative Cllr Jan Matecki as a burglar – she said: "It is great for Warwickshire to be in the headlines, just not for the reasons that we are seeing. We should be fixing the issues in the county for our residents."

She also referenced Reform's performance in power.

"I asked back in July when we could look forward to seeing what their policies would be," Cllr Feeney added.

"Councillor (Mike) Bannister said they would not be rushed by us, they would tell us when they were ready. From our perspective, we are still waiting."

She said the outcome would "depend on what the Conservatives do" and stated her belief that "they are still in decision-making mode".

"They are playing their cards very close to their chests. I genuinely don't know what they'll do," said Cllr Feeney.

A statement from Liberal Democrat group leader Cllr Roodhouse struck a similar tone.

It read: "Residents expect their council to be accountable, respectful and focused on delivering real improvements. Unfortunately, we believe the current leadership has fallen far short of those standards.

"Supporting this proposal is about ensuring the increasingly serious concerns over the way Warwickshire County Council is being led are put on record and that action is taken.

"Councillor Finch's public comments about 'boots on the neck' of staff were symptomatic of a cavalier approach and were completely unacceptable. It's not about political point scoring."