In wishing everyone a Happy New Year, I am very conscious that the start of the year has been far from happy for some.

Many in our area have been affected by flooding and we should recognise too those who have been working hard to rescue and repair as a result of the bad weather.

Among those who have seen unwelcome change in the turning of the year are parents whose children attend private schools, who are facing 20% VAT on school fees as from 1 January.

To those who think private school parents are all rich and can afford it, I would say that in my experience the caricature is often wrong.

Many families make considerable sacrifices to send their children to private schools and some will find fee increases unaffordable.

To those who say I should be more interested in the majority of families who could never have afforded private education and have to rely on the state sector, I would say that one of the biggest problems with this policy change is its effect on state schools.

All those families who do find the increase in school fees unaffordable will be seeking to find state school places for their children.

In some parts of the country it may be true that there are plenty of places available for them in state schools, but it is not true in our part of Warwickshire, especially at secondary level.

I have often been contacted, before this change was announced, by parents who are unable to get their children into the state school of their choice, which may well have a waiting list.

Greater competition for state school places because more families are seeking them will make matters worse.

It is also likely to bring into the state school system more children with additional needs, who may have been attending private schools because they find it easier to cope with smaller class sizes and who may not have been through the formal assessment process which applies in the state sector.

That assessment process, and the provision of support which should follow it, are already under huge strain and could do without this likely extra demand.

Parents of children who currently attend private schools do of course still contribute to the cost of state education through their taxes, without their children taking up places there.

Should those children need state school places because their parents withdraw them from private schools, the cost of state education which we all share goes up.

The government says that the extra income it will get from higher VAT on private school fees will cover that, but its calculations rely on a low rate of transfer from private to state education as a result of the tax change.

Even if their figures are correct, they say the extra income will pay for 6,500 extra teachers, or 10 per parliamentary constituency if distributed evenly.

There are 40 schools in the Kenilworth and Southam constituency, so we are talking about considerably less than one additional teacher per school.

I fear the costs of this policy for state education will outweigh the benefits.

This government's most loyal supporters have never much liked private education and are keen to make it more expensive. Although it is not one I share, I understand the point of view.

But claiming this change is being made for the good of our education system as a whole, rather than as an implementation of political prejudice, is not, I suspect, going to stand up to scrutiny.