Reform surging in West Midlands and on course for massive election gains - poll
A year since the General Election, a new poll has revealed Reform UK is on course to form a majority government, thanks to a meteoric rise in the West Midlands.
The MRP poll of over 5,000 British adults, conducted by leading communications agency PLMR and Electoral Calculus, reveals that if a General Election were held tomorrow, Reform UK would secure 31 per cent of the national vote, compared to 22 per cent for Labour and 19 per cent for the Conservatives.
Based on constituency-level voting intention, this would result in 377 seats for Reform UK, up from just five in the last election.
Labour would fall from 412 to 118 seats, while the Conservatives are predicted to collapse to just 29 seats, trailing behind the Liberal Democrats on 69 seats.
This would see Nigel Farage become Prime Minister without the need for any parliamentary coalition or alliances. Even if all the other parties joined forces, they would not have enough seats to prevent Farage walking into Number Ten.
Reform's surge is especially rampant in the West Midlands where the party is currently forecast to gain 35 of the 39 parliamentary seats across Birmingham, the Black Country, Solihull, Coventry, Warwickshire and Worcestershire.
A staggering 24 of these seats are projected to move from Labour, nine from the Conservatives and one from Minority.
However, Kenilworth and Southam, Warwick and Leamington and Stratford-on-Avon would not be taken by Reform, if the polling results turned out to be correct.
All three would remain as they are currently - Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat respectively.
The projected vote has changed in nearly half (18) of all local constituencies since PLMR and Electoral Calculus' previous poll in April, reflecting not just major indecision among the region's electorate, but a groundswell of new support for Nigel Farage's party.
Martin Baxter, Founder of Electoral Calculus, said: "This is our first MRP poll to show Reform could have an outright parliamentary majority if there were an election soon. The 'big two' established parties now only command the support of 41% of the public, which is unprecedented in the last hundred years.
"If Labour could bring back disaffected centre-left voters from the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, then they could easily beat Reform. As it stands, Reform is firmly out in front."
These latest findings come as Reform hits the headlines in Warwickshire after taking control of Warwickshire County Council.
After previous leader Cllr Rob Howard stepped down after just 41 days as leader, 18-year-old Cllr Jack Finch has taken interim charge.
His first public act as temporary leader was to tell the chief executive to remove the Pride flag from outside Shire Hall. Monica Fogarty refused to do so which has led to a media storm in the days that followed as both Nigel Farage and Reform's head of government efficiency Zia Yusuf criticised her publicly.
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