Fresh anger over the loss of green belt land around Coventry to housing has emerged after new figures suggested that the homes may not be needed.

Five years ago, Coventry City Council agreed to earmark 10 per cent of greenbelt land in the city for 8,000 houses.

This was due in part to a forecast spike in population by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – and also because of the difficulties in finding suitable brownfield sites to meet the predicted housing demand.

But the decision was criticised by opposition political groups, whilst Green activists argued that the ONS was overestimating the surge in population.

Local MPs and the West Midlands Mayor took up their cause and a watchdog found last year that the ONS projections were "potentially too high" for Coventry and other university towns in the UK.

Now their concerns appear to be confirmed as the results of the 2021 Census released last week (28 June) showed Coventry's population is 30,000 less than the ONS predicted back in 2014 and even fewer than more recent estimates.

Population increases across Coventry and Warwickshire according to the 2021 census results (Image via census.gov.uk)

The results have led to fresh calls to review the Coventry Local Plan which decides where homes will be built in the city.

But outline planning permission has already been granted for thousands of homes on former greenbelt land.

Merle Gering, Chair of the Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE) Coventry, said he was "furious" after seeing the results of the 2021 Census.

He said he had told the council of his scepticism over the figures many times and produced evidence from data which was back by senior academics – but nothing had been done.

He claimed that officers and elected members at the council "will try to hide behind the ONS" and accused them of ignoring "what was blindingly obvious".

He said: "On the back of these results, there was no need to take land from green belt – the 'best remaining pieces of unspoiled Arden landscape in Warwickshire' have been sacrificed for no good reason.

"There was enough brownfield land in the city, to cater for all the likely growth to 2031."

Eastern Green resident Steve Cox said it was "confirmation that the majority of planning consents recently granted on former green belt land are completely unnecessary".

Biggest increases in West Midlands between 2011 and 2021 (Image via Census.gov.uk)

He said local councillors should "hang their heads in shame."

But Coventry City Council's cabinet member for housing and communities, Cllr David Welsh, said that the authority could not have acted any earlier.

"These are the figures the government makes us use," he said.

"If I was to do a planning review last year or the year before I would have still had to use the 2014 ONS data."

His position was always to wait for the 2021 Census results because it would provide evidence to review the targets in the plan, he said. 

Cllr Welsh said he wants to protect the green belt but it takes "an awful lot of money" to develop brownfield sites due to problems such as contaminated sites which need remedial works.

"We do have a housing crisis, we do have people who are in extreme need of housing," he added.

"My priority is meeting housing needs."

Cllr David Welsh: 'We do have a housing crisis, we do have people who are in extreme need of housing' (Image via CCC)

He also pointed out that the Census took place in a pandemic – when many students may have gone home to study – and more detailed results will come out this winter.

Cllr Welsh added that ONS projections for Coventry and Warwickshire as a whole were only out by 2,000.

The government agency predicted 945,000 people in 2014, and 942,100 were recorded in the Census. 

"Coventry's need is slightly less but Warwickshire's need is more," he said. "It's swings and roundabouts in one sense."

Asked for comment, the ONS told the Local Democracy Reporting Service: "We would always expect differences with the mid year population estimates from the year prior to census.

"The main purpose of the census is to 'rebase' our estimates of the size of the population.  

"In the case of Coventry, the census shows our mid year estimates have been giving a slight overestimate of the population. 

"The population continues to change and we recognise the need to understand those ongoing changes in a more timely and frequent way than ever before.

"We are using a variety of data sources to do this and will publish more on our new approach in the coming months."