Warwick and Leamington would be the only non-Reform UK constituency in Warwickshire if a general election was held today, according to a new poll.

A new MRP poll of over 7,400 people has identified a continued rise in popularity of Nigel Farage's party in the West Midlands and across the country.

The poll, part of the quarterly Road to 2029 research run by communications firm PLMR and Electoral Calculus, shows Reform UK is set to secure 36 per cent of the vote, ahead of Labour at 21 per cent and the Conservatives at just 15 per cent.

This would hand Farage 445 seats in parliament and see the Conservatives come in fifth place - behind Labour, Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party - with a record low of just seven seats.

In Warwickshire Labour is predicted to hold Warwick and Leamington.

But neighbouring Stratford-upon-Avon, Kenilworth and Southam, Rugby, Warwickshire North and Bedworth, and Nuneaton would all be Reform.

Predicted election results according to PLMR and Electoral Calculus' new poll

However, emerging trends for tactical voting could stop Mr Farage in his tracks, as a massive 78 seats could flip if voters co-ordinate.

That could include Kenilworth and Southam which is predicted to remain Conservative according to the tactical voting results.

Reform's surge is prevalent in the West Midlands where the party is forecast to win 29 of the 39 parliamentary seats across Birmingham, the Black Country, Solihull, Coventry, Warwickshire and Worcestershire, with 22 gains from Labour and seven from the Conservatives.

According to the poll, Shabana Mahmood would lose her Birmingham Ladywood seat to the new Your Party, likely to be led by former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Many of her Labour colleagues are set to become high-profile casualties of Reform's rise.

Rebecca Langton, PLMR Board Director and Head of PLMR Midlands, said: "This latest poll highlights a vast change to the two-party dominance we're so used to in British politics and serves as another wake-up call, were it needed, to Keir Starmer and the Labour Party.

"It also demonstrates the importance for all parties to build relationships and trust with the UK electorate after such a fractious period.

"Whilst the next General Election is not expected until 2029, it will be very interesting to see how next year's local elections play out in the West Midlands. They could provide an even more tangible barometer of political opinion and a real gauge as to how far Reform has risen, and how far Labour and the Conservatives have fallen."

See the poll results in full here.