New poll shows huge support for Reform in Warwickshire with cost of living decisive for voters
By James Smith 18th Jan 2026
By James Smith 18th Jan 2026
A new MRP poll has revealed continued support for Reform UK in the West Midlands while the cost of food and energy prices has emerged as the two biggest concerns for the region's voters in 2026.
In new research from Electoral Calculus and national communications agency PLMR, 60% of West Midlands voters ranked food bills as a top priority influencing their voting intentions and 56 per cent ranked energy bills as a top priority.
The poll also found a rare consensus across the political spectrum, with these issues outweighing anxieties on all other cost of living pressures for the majority of all voters. This reflects a perceived need for the Government to improve the affordability of everyday essentials to win back support.
Other top concerns for voters included taxation (31 per cent), rent and housing costs (27 per cent), wages and income support (22 per cent), and fuel and transport costs (17 per cent).
Voting intention remains fragmented, with voters increasingly willing to reconsider long-held allegiances amid frustration with the political status quo.
The poll puts Reform UK on 31 per cent of the national vote, making it the largest party and on course to win 335 seats, enough to form a small overall majority if a general election were held now. The Conservatives are in second place on 21 per cent, projected to secure 92 seats, while the Liberal Democrats stand on 11 per cent and 60 seats.
On the left, the Greens overtake Labour to become the largest progressive party, polling 12 per cent and winning an estimated 52 seats, compared with Labour on 17 per cent and just 41 seats.

Reform's popularity is very keenly felt in the West Midlands where the party is forecast to win 27 of the 39 parliamentary seats across Birmingham, the Black Country, Solihull, Coventry, Warwickshire and Worcestershire, with a staggering 23 gains from Labour and four from the Conservatives.
Rebecca Langton, PLMR Board Director and Head of PLMR Midlands, said: "Our latest poll indicates that cost of living pressures and the way voters in the West Midlands feel about their personal finances is of paramount importance and is swaying how they judge the UK's political system.
"Voters in the region are increasingly being driven by money worries and that is translating into an unprecedented and uncertain political landscape.
"The electorate's patience with the natural order in British politics is wearing thing. Never has it been so important for the Government, and indeed all political parties, to focus on practical action that will ease the cost of living burden on households across the region and the country as a whole.
"Parties must act now to cut through on this issue and rebuild trust with ever sceptical voters."
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: "Labour is suffering double trouble from the rise of Reform on the right, and the growth of the Greens on the left. But there is still some hope for Labour. The newly-launched Your Party is not polling as well
as it did in our previous poll just three months ago, and is now down to around 2pc and about four seats.
"As economic issues, like the cost-of-living, are very important to voters, Labour might also capitalise on the sketchiness of Reform and Green economic plans."
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